Assessing opportunities to increase global food production within the safe operating space for human freshwater use

Die Landwirtschaft ist heute der wichtigste Treiber der globalen Degradation von Ökosystemen. Es existiert jedoch wenig konkretes Wissen, wie Ökosysteme zu schützen sind und gleichzeitig die Nahrungsproduktion für die wachsende Weltbevölkerung gesichert werden kann. In dieser Dissertation untersuche ich Optimierungsmöglichkeiten im landwirtschaftlichen Wassermanagement. Ich quantifiziere praxisorientierte Verbesserungen der Regenwassernutzung und Optimierungen von Bewässerungssystemen, unter Einhaltung der „environmental flow requirements“ (EFRs). Um diese komplexen Interaktionen zu untersuchen, entwickle ich ein agro-hydrologisches Modell auf Basis detaillierter, mechanistischer Prozessabbildung weiter. Erstens, 39% der derzeitigen Wasserentnahmen für Bewässerung sind nicht nachhaltig und somit auf Kosten der Ökosysteme. Zweitens, solche lokalen Wasserentnahmegrenzen legen nahe, dass die globale Grenze für den menschlichen Wasserverbrauch deutlich niedriger liegt, als bisher angenommen (2800 vs 4000 km3yr-1). Drittens, die Implementierung von EFRs würde die landwirtschaftliche Produktion erheblich beeinträchtigen, mit >20% in stark bewässerten Gebieten. Verbesserte Nutzung des Niederschlagswassers und die Optimierung von Bewässerungssystemen, können die weltweite Nahrungsmittelproduktion allerdings um rund 40% nachhaltig steigern - ausreichend, um die Nahrungsmittellücke der wachsenden Weltbevölkerung bis 2050 zu halbieren. Zusammenfassend stellt diese Arbeit die erste umfassende und systematische Einschätzung globaler Potentiale der nachhaltigen Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft aus der Wasserperspektive dar. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgebrachten innovativen und quantitativen Erkenntnisse legen nahe, dass das Potential der diskutierten Interventionen höhere politische Aufmerksamkeit erfahren sollte. Meine Ergebnisse können eine konkretere Diskussion zur Umsetzung der Sustainable Development Goals untermauern.Agriculture is today''s most important driver of ecosystem degradation across scales. However, there is little evidence on how to attain the historic twin-challenge of maintaining environmental integrity while producing enough food for a growing world population. In this thesis, I assess opportunities in agricultural water management to reconcile future food needs with environmental limits to water use. I explore solution-oriented ways to improve rainfed and irrigation systems alike, while safeguarding environmental flows (EFRs). To study complex interactions quantitatively, I advanced a state-of-the-art global modeling framework based on detailed, mechanistic process representation. First, a systematic upscaling of EFRs to global coverage indicates that 39% of current freshwater withdrawals for irrigation are unsustainable and occur at the cost of ecosystems. Second, accounting for EFRs indicates that the planetary boundary for freshwater use might be notably lower (2800 vs. 4000 km3yr-1) than expected. Third, maintaining EFRs would significantly affect food production, cutting >20% of total kcal production across intensely irrigated areas. Fourth, improving irrigation systems in combination with optimizing the use of precipitation water, provides effective and accessible measures to compensate for adverse impacts from protecting EFRs and climate change. Such integrated interventions could sustainably intensify global food production (+40% kcal) to the degree sufficient to halve the global food gap by 2050. In conclusion, this thesis provides the first comprehensive and systematic assessment of hitherto largely unquantified water opportunities in sustainable intensification of agriculture. While requiring corroboration by finer-scale research, the innovative quantitative foundation provided in this thesis suggests that farm water management merits a rise in political attention, and it can inform a more comprehensive discussion of related SDG target interactions

Agriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All

A sustainable and just future, envisioned by the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, puts agricultural systems under a heavy strain. The century-old quandary to provide ever-growing human populations with sufficient food takes on a new dimension with the recognition of environmental limits for agricultural resource use. To highlight challenges and opportunities toward sustainable food security in the twenty first century, this perspective paper provides a historical account of the escalating pressures on agriculture and freshwater resources alike, supported by new quantitative estimates of the ascent of excessive human water use. As the transformation of global farming into sustainable forms is unattainable without a revolution in agricultural water use, water saving and food production potentials are put into perspective with targets outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The literature body and here-confirmed global estimates of untapped opportunities in farm water management indicate that these measures could sustainably intensify today's farming systems at scale. While rigorous implementation of sustainable water withdrawals (SDG 6.4) might impinge upon 5% of global food production, scaling-up water interventions in rainfed and irrigated systems could over-compensate such losses and further increase global production by 30% compared to the current situation (SDG 2.3). Without relying on future technological fixes, traditional on-farm water and soil management provides key strategies associated with important synergies that needs better integration into agro-ecological landscape approaches. Integrated strategies for sustainable intensification of agriculture within planetary boundaries are a potential way to attain several SDGs, but they are not yet receiving attention from high-level development policies. © Copyright © 2020 Jägermeyr

Spatial variations in crop growing seasons pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields

Freshwater Requirements of Large-Scale Bioenergy Plantations for Limiting Global Warming to 1.5C

Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of bioenergy plantations (BPs) dedicated to achieving NEs through CO2 assimilation may be limited in regions with low freshwater availability. This paper provides a first-order quantification of the biophysical potentials of BECCS as a negative emission technology contribution to reaching the 1.5 C warming target, as constrained by associated water availabilities and requirements. Using a global biosphere model, we analyze the availability of freshwater for irrigation of BPs designed to meet the projected NEs to fulfill the 1.5 C target, spatially explicitly on areas not reserved for ecosystem conservation or agriculture. We take account of the simultaneous water demands for agriculture, industries, and households and also account for environmental flow requirements (EFRs) needed to safeguard aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, we assess to what extent different forms of improved water management on the suggested BPs and on cropland may help to reduce the freshwater abstractions. Results indicate that global water withdrawals for irrigation of BPs range between ~400 and ~3000 km(exp 3) yr(exp -1), depending on the scenario and the conversion efficiency of the carbon capture and storage process. Consideration of EFRs reduces the NE potential significantly, but can partly be compensated for by improved on-field water management

Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 °C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of bioenergy plantations (BPs) dedicated to achieving NEs through CO2 assimilation may be limited in regions with low freshwater availability. This paper provides a first-order quantification of the biophysical potentials of BECCS as a negative emission technology contribution to reaching the 1.5 °C warming target, as constrained by associated water availabilities and requirements. Using a global biosphere model, we analyze the availability of freshwater for irrigation of BPs designed to meet the projected NEs to fulfill the 1.5 °C target, spatially explicitly on areas not reserved for ecosystem conservation or agriculture. We take account of the simultaneous water demands for agriculture, industries, and households and also account for environmental flow requirements (EFRs) needed to safeguard aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, we assess to what extent different forms of improved water management on the suggested BPs and on cropland may help to reduce the freshwater abstractions. Results indicate that global water withdrawals for irrigation of BPs range between ∼400 and ∼3000 km3 yr−1, depending on the scenario and the conversion efficiency of the carbon capture and storage process. Consideration of EFRs reduces the NE potential significantly, but can partly be compensated for by improved on-field water management.University of Chicago Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy PolicyBMBF project BioCAP-CCSDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft SPP 1689 on ‘Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges, Opportunities?’Peer Reviewe

Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts

Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 °C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of bioenergy plantations (BPs) dedicated to achieving NEs through CO2 assimilation may be limited in regions with low freshwater availability. This paper provides a first-order quantification of the biophysical potentials of BECCS as a negative emission technology contribution to reaching the 1.5 °C warming target, as constrained by associated water availabilities and requirements. Using a global biosphere model, we analyze the availability of freshwater for irrigation of BPs designed to meet the projected NEs to fulfill the 1.5 °C target, spatially explicitly on areas not reserved for ecosystem conservation or agriculture. We take account of the simultaneous water demands for agriculture, industries, and households and also account for environmental flow requirements (EFRs) needed to safeguard aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, we assess to what extent different forms of improved water management on the suggested BPs and on cropland may help to reduce the freshwater abstractions. Results indicate that global water withdrawals for irrigation of BPs range between ∼400 and ∼3000 km3 yr−1, depending on the scenario and the conversion efficiency of the carbon capture and storage process. Consideration of EFRs reduces the NE potential significantly, but can partly be compensated for by improved on-field water management

Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies

Implementation and Evaluation of Irrigation Techniques in the Community Land Model

Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation-induced impacts on the global and regional water cycle, energy budget, and near-surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, the implementations of irrigation in these models vary in complexity. Here, we expand the representation of irrigation in Community Land Model to enable six different irrigation methods. We find that using a combination of irrigation methods, including default, sprinkler, flood and paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating the simulated irrigation water withdrawals against observations, and therefore select this combination as the new irrigation scheme. Then, the impact of the new irrigation scheme on surface fluxes is evaluated and detected using single-point simulations. Finally, the global and regional irrigation-induced impacts on surface energy and water fluxes are compared using both the original and the new irrigation scheme. The new irrigation scheme substantially reduces the bias and root-mean-square error of simulated irrigation water withdrawal in the USA and other countries, but considerably overestimates withdrawals in Central China. Results of single-point experiments show that different irrigation methods have different effects on surface fluxes, while the magnitudes are small. At the global scale, the new scheme enlarges the irrigation-induced impacts on water and energy variables relative to the original scheme, with varying magnitudes across regions. Overall, our results suggest that this newly developed scheme is a better tool for simulating irrigation-induced impacts on climate, and highlight the added value of incorporating human water management in Earth system models

Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks

Countries’ reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070-2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries’ maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks